Technical Papers – Space Debris

A Framework for Space Safety Analysis: Fragmentation Footprint and Multi-Shell Critical Density (2025)
Di Wu, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

Keywords: Space Sustainability, Quantification, Space Safety, Critical Density, Fragmentation Footprint

A Sensitivity Analysis of DAS Lifetime Collision Probability Estimates (2025)
Yash Chandramouli, Amazon Project Kuiper; Liberty Shockley, Amazon Project Kuiper

Keywords: collision probability, lifetime, debris, space safety

Improved Astrometry and Sensitivity for a Survey of Faint Geosynchronous Debris (2025)
James Blake, University of Warwick; Benjamin Cooke, University of Warwick; Grant Privett, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory; Toshifumi Yanagisawa, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; William Feline, Defence Science Technology Laboratory; Christopher Onken, Australian National University; Don Pollacco, University of Warwick; Paul Chote, University of Warwick; Tomoko Fujiwara, JAXA Bisei Space Guard Center; Daisuke Kuroda, JAXA Bisei Space Guard Center; Tokuhiro Nimura, JAXA Bisei Space Guard Center; Kota Nishiyama, JAXA Bisei Space Guard Center; Shin-ichiro Okumura, JAXA Bisei Space Guard Center; Seitaro Urakawa, JAXA Bisei Space Guard Center; Christian Wolf, Australian National University

Keywords: Geosynchronous Region, Space Debris, Optical Imaging, Astrometry, Object Detection, Blind Stacking, Light Curves

Leveraging Astronomical Surveys for Space Debris Detection and Characterization: Application to VST/OmegaCAM (2025)
Elisabeth Rachith, EPFL; Stephan Hellmich, EPFL; Jean-Paul Kneib, EPFL

Keywords: Machine learning, astronomical surveys, streak detection, light curve analysis

NorthStar’s Fragmentation Analysis of the Intelsat 33e Breakup in GEO (2025)
Laura Pirovano, NorthStar Earth & Space; Yashica Khatri, NorthStar Earth & Space; Narendra Gollu, NorthStar Earth & Space; Matteo Budoni, NorthStar Earth & Space; Guillermo Escribano Blázquez, NorthStar Earth & Space

Keywords: Fragmentation event, Break-up, Cataloguing, IOD

Prototype Development of Web AI-Based Decision Support System: Insights and Recommendations for Satellite Anomaly Identification (2025)
Abdul Mutholib, International Islamic University, Malaysia; Nadirah Abdul Rahim, International Islamic University, Malaysia; Teddy Surya Gunawan, International Islamic University, Malaysia

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Decision Support System, Satellite anomalies, Space situational awareness (SSA), Trade Space Exploration, Seradata

Rapid Tracking and Cataloguing Fragmentation in Orbit Using Three Telescopes: The Intelsat 33E Case (2025)
Manuel Pavy, CNES; Valentin Baral, CNES; Emmanuel Delande, CNES; Yvan Gary, CNES; Pascal Richard, CNES; Raphel Ferme, CS Group

Keywords: break-up, fragmentation, cataloguing, telescopes, correlation, filter,

Satellite Debris Classification Framework: Using Graph Neural Networks for Explosion and Collision Event Characterization (2025)
Bhargav Joshi, Digantara; Subramanian Arumugam, Digantara; Siri, L., Digantara; Thamim Ansari, Digantara; Tanveer Ahmed, Digantara

Keywords: SSA, SDA, Breakup Events, Space Debris, AI, Graph Neural Networks (GNN)

Soliton-Soliton Interactions as a Mechanism for Detecting Sub-Centimeter Orbital Debris (2025)
Victor Bucklew, L3Harris; Joe Dodd, L3Harris; Jim Drakes, L3Harris; Donna Kocak, L3Harris

Keywords: Space debris, sensors, plasma, precursor solitons, debris detection technique

Tracking Small Debris Using Probabilistic Methods (2025)
Matthew Popplewell, Advanced Space; Matthew Givens, Advanced Space; Frank Centinello, Advanced Space; Michael Caudill, Advanced Space; Benjamin Tatman, Advanced Space; Nathan Parrish Ré, Advanced Space

Keywords: orbit determination, space debris, astrodynamics, optical, radar

Verification and Validation of Orbital Capacity Assessment Tools of Varying Fidelities (2025)
Indigo Brownhall, University College London; Miles Lifson, The Aerospace Corporation; Giovanni Lavezzi, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Enrico Zucchelli, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Mark Moretto, North Carolina State University; Santosh Bhattarai, University College London; Richard Linares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: Space Debris Modelling, Sustainability, LEO, Space Policy

Analysis of Darkened Fragments Resulting from Laboratory Hypervelocity Experiments (2024)
Heather Cowardin, NASA JSC; Phillip Anz-Meador, Jacobs Technology; Jarod Melo, JACOBS; Mark Castaneda, NASA JSC Pathways Intern Program; Corbin Cruz, JACOBS; John Opiela, JACOBS; Christopher Cline, NASA Hypervelocity Impact Technology Team; Eric Christiansen, NASA Hypervelocity Impact Technology Team

Keywords: laboratory, fragmentation event,optical measurements, optical size estimation model

Catalog of US Launched Objects for Active Debris Removal (2024)
Patrick Seitzer, University of Michigan; Adam Kall, Kall Morris Inc; Austin Morris, Kall Morris Inc; Troy Morris, Kall Morris Inc; Corinne Moore, Kall Morris Inc

Keywords: ADR, debris, rocket bodies, policy

Challenges in Orbital Debris Modeling: A Comparative Analysis of NASA SBM and Space Fence Data (2024)
Tory Smith, USSF/MIT; Zachary Folcik, MIT Lincoln Laboratory; Richard Linares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: NASA Standard Break-up Model (SBM), Space Fence Radar, Population Modeling, Orbital Capacity

Cislunar Missions End-of-Life Disposal Strategies (2024)
Joshua Wysack, BAE Systems

Keywords: cislunar, SDA, STM, lunar, Moon, end-of-life, disposal

Error Analysis of Bulk-Density Measurements for Metal-Type Debrisat Fragments (2024)
Cesar Carrasquilla, University of Florida; Matthew Biles, University of Florida; Norman Fitz-Coy, University of Florida

Keywords: debrisat, 3D imager, measurement error

Exploring Soliton Enhancement for Ground-Based Detection of Lethal Non-Trackable Space Debris (2024)
Kristine Rosfjord, InTrack Radar Technologies; Kristen Shavlik, InTrack Radar Technologies; Jeremy Kolansky, InTrack Radar Technologies; W.J. Mandeville, InTrack Radar Technologies; Piyush Mehta, West Virginia University

Keywords: solitons, small debris, precursor solitons, pinned solitons, Bragg scattering, whistlers

Extreme Gradient Boosting and Deep Learning Models for the Classification of Synthetic Space Debris Light Curves (2024)
Anne Adriano, University of Waterloo; K. Andrea Scott, University of Waterloo; Nasser Lashgarian Azad, University of Waterloo

Keywords: Classification, space debris, light curve, Blender, Orekit, machine learning, deep learning, Wavelet Scattering Transform, attitude, shape

Feasibility Study of Spaceborne Pulsed Laser System Removing Small Debris Objects in Near-Earth Orbits (2024)
Shigeaki Uchida, Henan University of Science and Technology; Kazunori Shibata, Osaka University; Kotomi Kawakami, Kitasato University; Hideki Okamura, International Christian University; Nakai Mitsuo, Fukui University of Technology; Xiao Xiao, Henan University of Science and Technology; Yin Danqing, Henan University of Science and Technology; Keke Zhang, Henan University of Science and Technology; Zhonghao Heng, Qinghai University

Keywords: debris, laser, digital hologram, removal

OD-SSA Activity at NASA’s Heliophysics Division (2024)
Reinhard Friedel, NASA Headquarters; Alex Fletcher, NASA SMD - Heliophyscis; Jamie Favors, NASA Headquarters Heliophyscis Division; Travis Blake, NASA Headquarters, Science Mission Directorate

Keywords: small OD, in-situ OD instrumentation, OD science

Poland’s Evolving Space Law: Assessing Space Debris Mitigation and Remediation in the European Context (2024)
Malgorzata Polkowska, Lomza Academy; Arkadiusz Chimicz, General Command, Polish Armed Forces

Keywords: space debris, space law, SSA, defence, security,

Recent Evolution of the Sub-Catalogue Space Debris Population in High-Altitude Orbital Regions (2024)
Thomas Schildknecht, University of Bern, Astronomical Institute; Fiona Pärli, University of Bern, Astronomical Institute; Alessandro Vananti, University of Bern, Astronomical Institute; Palash Patole, University of Bern, Astronomical Institute; Peter Pessev, University of Bern, Astronomical Institute; Tim Flohrer, ESA/ESOC Space Debris Office,; Jan Siminski, ESA/ESOC Space Debris Office,

Keywords: space debris, breakup debris clouds, high-altitude orbit debris environment

Resilience of LEO Constellations to Accidental and Intentional Fragmentation Events (2024)
Mark Sturza, Viasat; Mark Dankberg, Viasat; William Blount, Viasat

Keywords: LEO, debris, resilience, robustness, redundancy, constellation, fragmentation

A Summary of the DRAGRACER Flight Experiment for Orbital Debris Mitigation and Radiometric Solutions (2023)
Patrick Kelly, Millennium Space Systems, A Boeing Company; Ellen Glad, Millennium Space Systems, A Boeing Company; Tyler Ritz, Millennium Space Systems

Keywords: Space Debris, Tether, Telescope, Detection, Orbital Debris Mitigation, Scientific Method

About some features of the distribution of relative accelerations in the vicinity of the satellite in the region of GEO orbits (2023)
Alice Horbachova, Odesa I.I.Mechnikov National University; Oleksandr Bazyey, Odessa I.I.Mechnikov National University

Keywords: space debris, relative accelerations, space vehicles, GEO orbit region, numerical integration of the equations of motion

Characterization of NaK Coolant Blobs from Soviet RORSAT Reactors (2023)
Adam Battle, University of Arizona; Tanner Campbell, University of Arizona; Roberto Furfaro, University of Arizona; Vishnu Reddy, University of Arizona

Keywords: LEO, cm-size, Debris, NaK, RORSAT

Estimating orbital debris mass via solar radiation pressure and photometric signatures (2023)
Jim Shell, Novarum Tech, LLC

Keywords: high area-to-mass (HAMR) objects, photometry, solar radiation pressure

IARPA’s Space debris Identification and Tracking (SINTRA) Program (2023)
Alexis Truitt, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)

Keywords: space debris, debris, ssa, sda

Monte-Carlo Methods for All-vs-all Future LEO Population Evolution Modeling (2023)
Daniel Jang, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Peng Mun Siew, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Pablo Machuca, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Richard Linares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: Lethal Non-trackable Objects, Monte Carlo methods, on-orbit collisions, Break-up events orbital capacity, low-earth orbit environment

On the Increased Risk of Kessler Syndrome by Anti-Satellite Tests (2023)
Cameron Liang, Institute for Defense Analyses; Paul Fanto, Institute for Defense Analyses; Angelo Signoracci, Institute for Defense Analyses;

Keywords: Space Debris, Kessler Syndrome, Statistical Modeling, Orbital Debris, Anti-satellite Tests

Orbital Debris Shape Effect Investigations for Mitigating Risk (2023)
Heather Cowardin, NASA Orbital Debris Program; Eric Christiansen, NASA Johnson Space Center,; Mark Matney, NASA Orbital Debris Program; Joshua Miller, University of Texas at El Paso; Bruce (Alan) Davis, Jacobs Technology; Corbin Cruz, Jacobs Technology; John Seago, Jacobs Technology; John Opiela, Jacobs Technology; Austen King, Jacobs Technology; Alyssa Manis, Jacobs Technology;

Keywords: orbital debris, shape, hypervelocity impact, hydrocodes, ray-tracing, models

Refining Active Debris Removal Strategies (2023)
Chris Tuttle, Clearspace Today, Inc.; Darren McKnight, LeoLabs; Tim Maclay, ClearSpace

Keywords: debris removal, debris remediation,

Space-based observations of plasma waves during conjunctions between host sensors and space objects (2023)
Lauchie Scott, Defense R&D Canada; Paul Bernhardt, University of Alaska Fairbanks; Andrew Howarth, University of Calgary

Keywords: plasma waves, ionosphere, conjunctions, space debris, non-traditional object sensing

Space-Based Optical Component (SBOC) for the ESA VISDOMS Mission (2023)
Jens Utzmann, Airbus Defence and Space; Stefan Kraft, European Space Agency

Keywords: SBSS, SST, SSA, SDA, telescope, space-based sensors

Statistical Analysis of Space Debris Surveys in High-altitude Orbital Regions (2023)
Thomas Schildknecht, Astronomisches Institut Universität Bern; Peter Pessev, University of Bern, Astronomical Institute; Julian Rodriguez, Astronomisches Institut Universität Bern; Palash Patole, Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern; Alessandro Vananti, Astronomische Institut Universitär Bern; Jan Siminski, ESA/ESOC Space Debris Office; Tim Flohrer, ESA Space Debris Office

Keywords: optical surveys, space debris, sub-catalogue debris population, space debris in high-altitude orbits

Uncertainty in Remaining Orbital Lifetime Estimation After Post-Mission Disposal (2023)
Lucía Ayala Fernández, Technische Universität Braunschweig; Carsten Wiedemann, Technische Universität Braunschweig; Vitali Braun, IMS Space Consultancy @ ESA/ESOC; Stijn Lemmens, ESA/ESOC Space Debris Office

Keywords: post-mission disposal, orbital lifetime, orbit propagation, space debris mitigation

Unlocking the Value of Space Debris: An Investigation on Multi-shell Source-Sink Physical-Economical Model and Space Debris Value Definition (2023)
Di Wu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Richard Linares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: space debris; physical-economic model; space economy; optimization

A Map of the Statistical Collision Risk in LEO (2022)
Darren McKnight, LeoLabs; Erin Dale, LeoLabs; Rachit Bhatia, LeoLabs; Mohin Patel, LeoLabs; Chris Kunstadter, AXA XL

Keywords: space debris, collision hazard assessment, space traffic management

A Statistical Approach to Identify Fragmentation Epoch from a Single Fragment Surveillance Radar Observation (2022)
Marco Felice Montaruli, Politecnico di Milano; Pierluigi Di Lizia, Politecnico di Milano; Emiliano Cordelli, GMV; Hélène Ma, RHEA System GmbH; Jan Siminski, European Space Agency – European Space Operations Centre (ESA/ESOC)

Keywords: Fragmentations, orbit determination, SST, surveillance radar, MOID, clustering, non-normal distributions

A Systems Theory Approach for Evaluating the Cascading Collision Potential of Orbital Shells (2022)
Valentin Eder, Space Analyses GmbH; Christian Unfried, Space Analyses GmbH

Keywords: Outer space, Sustainability, Risk Management, Data Analytics, Applied System Theory

An Analysis of the Impact of the Russian DA-ASAT Event on Space Domain Awareness (2022)
Christian Ramos, Omitron Inc; Deshaun Hutchinson, 18th Space Defense Squadron; Brent Skrehart, Omitron, Inc; David Gillespie, Omitron, Inc.; Diana McKissock, 18th Space Defense Squadron

Keywords: Space Domain Awareness, Conjunction Assessment, ASAT

Analysis of DebriSat Data Collection and Procedures (2022)
Elizabeth Campa, University of Florida; Rafael Carrasquilla, University of Florida; Norman Fitz-Coy, University of Florida

Keywords: Low earth orbit satellite, orbital debris engineering models, space debris

Comparison of Predicted and Observed Spacecraft Encounters from Russian ASAT Test (2022)
Daniel L. Oltrogge, COMSPOC; Salvatore Alfano, COMSPOC; Robert Hall, COMSPOC

Keywords: Russian ASAT Test, operator workload, automated collision avoidance maneuver

Detection Methods for the Statistical Analysis of the Population of Satellites and Space Debris from Astronomical Images (2022)
Elisabeth Rachith, Laboratory of Astrophysics EPFL LASTRO, Observatoire de Sauverny; Belén Yu Irureta-Goyena, Laboratory of Astrophysics EPFL LASTRO, Observatoire de Sauverny; Jean-Paul Kneib, Laboratory of Astrophysics EPFL LASTRO, Observatoire de Sauverny

Keywords: satellites, space debris, Hough transform, machine learning, streak detection

Early Identification and Tracking of Fragments from Break-up Events (2022)
Alejandro Pastor, GMV; Jan Siminski, ESA/ESOC Space Debris Office; Guillermo Escribano, University Carlos III of Madrid; Manuel Sanjurjo-Rivo, University Carlos III of Madrid; Diego Escobar, GMV

Keywords: fragmentation, detection, tracking, break-up, cataloging, association, correlation

Efficient Client-side High-fidelity Propagation and Visualization for Large Numbers of RSOs (2022)
Bill McClintock, The Stratagem Group; Duane Cornish, The Stratagem Group; Chris Tapley, The Stratagem Group; Sarar Aseer, The Stratagem Group; Thomas Kelecy, The Stratagem Group

Keywords: Debris break-up; Orbit propagation; High Area-to-Mass Ratio (HAMR), RUST, Web Assembly (WASM), Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)

From Ozone Depletion to Orbital Debris: Lessons Learned from the Montreal Protocol (2022)
Rina Zhang, Science and Technology Policy Institute; Asha Balakrishnan, Science and Technology Policy Institute

Keywords: International policy, global commons

LEO Capacity Modeling for Sustainable Design (2022)
Mark A. Sturza, Viasat, Inc.; Mark D. Dankberg, Viasat, Inc.; William N. Blount, Viasat, Inc.

Keywords: Sustainable Space, Debris, Holistic, Modeling, Policy, Collision Risk

Long-Term Evolution of Debris Clouds in Low Lunar Orbit (2022)
Nathan R. Boone, Air Force Institute of Technology; Robert A. Bettinger, Air Force Institute of Technology

Keywords: space debris, cislunar, debris risk, lunar debris, moon

Memo on Space Debris Summit and Active Debris Removal (2022)
Frederick Tarantino, SAF/SQS

Keywords: international, debris, Outer Space Treaty, law, policy

Modeling Small Orbital Debris Remediation in Low Earth Orbit (2022)
James C. Jones, Northrop Grumman; Michael Strong, Northrop Grumman

Keywords: orbital debris, remediation, modeling, ORDEM, debris, LEO, Low Earth Orbit

Observations of Small Debris from the Cosmos 1408 Anti-Satellite Test using the HUSIR and Goldstone Radars (2022)
James Murray, Jacobs JETS, NASA Johnson Space Center; Chris Ostrom, HX5 Jacobs JETS, NASA Johnson Space Center; Timothy Kennedy, NASA Johnson Space Center Orbital Debris Program Office; Mark Matney, NASA Johnson Space Center Orbital Debris Program Office

Keywords: radar, space debris, ASAT, anti-satellite, HUSIR, Goldstone

Optimization Framework for Low-Thrust Active Debris Removal Missions with Multiple Selected Targets (2022)
Joanna Hon, Turion Space Corporation.; M. Reza Emami, University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies

Keywords: Active Debris Removal, Mission Planning, Rendezvous, Optimization, Metaheuristics, Space Situational Awareness

Projected Orbital Demand and LEO Environmental Capacity (2022)
Andrea D'Ambrosio, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Miles Lifson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Daniel Jang, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Celina Pasiecznik, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Richard Linares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: Space Sustainability, Evolutionary Modeling, Orbital Capacity, Constellations, Low Earth Orbit

Stability of the LEO Environment as a Dynamical System (2022)
Daniel Jang, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Andrea D'Ambrosio, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Miles Lifson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Celina Pasiecznik, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Richard Linares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: Stability analysis, source-sink, LEO environment, spacecraft collision and fragmentation, space debris population