Timothy Gruber, MITRE Corporation; Theresa Bender, MITRE Corporation; Gabrielle Hedrick, MITRE Corporation; Zachary Sibert, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory; Andrew Abraham, The Aerospace Corporation; Robert Wolff, NOAA/Office of Space Commerce
https://doi.org/10.64861/GJAC9602
Keywords: COLA gap, post-launch tracking, early detection, initial orbit determination, catalog promotion, catalog custody, space traffic coordination, SSA, SDA, commercial sensing, ground-based optical, radar, space-based optical, owner/operator data sharing, mult
Abstract:
The U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Space Commerce (OSC) conducted the Commercial Collision on Launch Assessment (COLA) Gap Pathfinder to evaluate commercial capability in the rapid detection, orbit generation, orbit maintenance, and positive identification of newly launched objects for purposes of improving spaceflight safety. This post-launch interval is often referred to operationally as the “COLA gap.” During the COLA gap, uncertainties are high, object multiplicity can be significant, and the ability of civil, commercial, and governmental stakeholders to perform timely conjunction screening and coordinate risk mitigations may be constrained. The Commercial COLA Gap Pathfinder was designed to identify commercially achievable pathways to narrow this gap and to characterize the conditions and practices that enable the most rapid and reliable outcomes completely independent of US military data._x000D_
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The Pathfinder assessed commercial capabilities across five launches from two launch service providers and three launch sites, intentionally spanning a range of orbital inclinations, altitudes, and deployment characteristics to ensure the results were not limited to a single mission archetype. The study also incorporated variations in owner/operator data sharing to examine how different levels of pre- and post-launch external information availability affected the speed and confidence of commercial space situational awareness industry’s early detection, track association, and orbit refinement capabilities. The study included 9 participating entities comprised of data providers, orbit determination, and data quality monitor functions_x000D_
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Methodologically, OSC evaluated three broad sensing modalities and their integration with commercial orbit determination and track management services: ground-based optical observations and ground-based radar observations for tracking, and space-based optical observations unique object identification. For each launch case, the Pathfinder examined end-to-end performance across the sequence of operational steps required to close the COLA gap: (1) early detection (first observations consistent with the new objects), (2) initial orbit determination (IOD) sufficient to support predictive screening and follow-on tasking, (3) “catalog promotion,” defined as achieving an orbit solution with uncertainty characteristics appropriate for routine operational use and dissemination, and (4) catalog maintenance, defined as the ability to maintain track continuity and update the orbit in a sustained manner as objects disperse and observing geometry evolves. The assessment emphasized operational realism: observation latency, scheduling/tasking agility, sensor availability, geometry, and environmental constraints (including lighting and weather impacts for optical) were observed and studied alongside mission-dependent factors such as object count, separation timing, altitude regime, and inclination._x000D_
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A core element of the Pathfinder was exploring how owner/operator data sharing affects the time and effort required to transition from “unknown objects associated with the launch” to “identified objects with actionable orbits.” The study considered information-sharing constructs at different levels of specificity and timeliness, including (as available in each case) planned launch and deployment timelines, separation event data, initial state knowledge, deployment manifests, and structured communication pathways to connect owner/operator data directly into the Pathfinder processes. These data-sharing inputs influenced both the search volume (where to look and when) and the association problem (which detections correspond to which objects), particularly when multiple objects were released in close temporal and spatial proximity. The Pathfinder used these variations to assess how quickly commercial providers could converge on stable solutions under differing assumptions, and what operational dependencies most strongly affected the outcomes._x000D_
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Across the five launch cases, the Pathfinder found that closing the COLA gap most rapidly and reliably requires a combined approach: timely owner/operator data sharing paired with responsive commercial sensing and orbit determination capabilities. No single sensing modality consistently provided the best performance across all mission profiles and conditions. Ground-based optical provided rapid detection opportunities under favorable lighting and weather, but was constrained by atmospheric conditions and viewing geometry; ground-based radars offered more consistent access in many scenarios but was influenced by the quality of the cueing data; and space-based optical provided the ability to achieve positive identification, subject to appropriate tasking and analytic integration. The Pathfinder further observed that owner/operator data sharing is a key accelerator for correlation and orbit convergence, reducing ambiguity, enabling more efficient sensor tasking, and supporting earlier promotion to operationally useful catalog states. In practical terms, the most effective pathways combined complementary sensing sources with analytic workflows that explicitly manage uncertainty and support structured handoffs into custody._x000D_
Date of Conference: September 15-18, 2026
Track: Conjunction/RPO