Nancy Diallo, Stanford University; Prachet Jain, Stanford University; Sigrid Elschot, Stanford University
https://doi.org/10.64861/HPHS1844
Keywords: Space Debris, Satellite Failure, Attribution, Plasma, Impact, Low-Earth Orbit, Sensors, Diagnostics
Abstract:
As space-based technologies have become more widespread, both for civilian and military applications, the importance of protecting space assets has become paramount. However, these assets exist in an increasingly more contested domain, as adversarial nations deploy counterspace and anti-satellite weaponry. Simultaneously, the space environment poses its own dangers to the safety and security of deployed satellites. Therefore, the question of how to determine the attribution of satellite failures, either from intentional attack or natural causes, has become more important. In this work, we propose the creation of a novel diagnostics sensor suite that will serve as a pseudo “black box” and assess the feasibility of deploying such a sensor suite in a satellite constellation to more accurately attribute spacecraft failure._x000D_
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At various regions of space, both man-made and natural means can be the source of damage. We will focus on satellite failure mechanisms occurring in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), and will delineate between mechanical damage done to spacecraft and electrical damage. Mechanical damage refers to the physical alteration of satellite features due to kinetic impact events, typically resulting either from ASAT weaponry (intentionally) or space debris larger than 1 cm in diameter (accidentally). Electrical damage occurs from the disruption of on-board computational and electronic systems from electromagnetic (EM) activity, with intentional sources including direct energy weapons (DEWs) consisting of high-energy beams, such as lasers or high-powered microwaves, meant to cause some level of physical (and by extension, some electrical) damage, and EM attacks, wherein radio frequency (RF) emission disrupts satellite communications, or fully damages electrical subcomponents. Natural space phenomena can also lead to satellite failure. Spacecraft can be charged from solar radiation and ionospheric plasma, creating voltage differentials between surfaces that can trigger destructive electrostatic discharges, particularly during geomagnetic storms. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) and cosmic rays can directly damage semiconductor devices through single event effects (bit flips, component burnout) and cumulative radiation exposure. In addition, hypervelocity impacts (HVIs) from micrometeoroids and sub-cm debris can create plasma formation from impactor and satellite surface ionization, leading to suspected electromagnetic pulses (EMPs), rapid target discharge, and damaging voltage spikes in electronics. Mechanical and electrical damage from natural sources can mimic effects from intentional strikes, highlighting a vulnerability in existing abilities to differentiate a malicious act from an adversarial entity from a natural hazard. However, naturally occurring impacts often have notably different signatures from ASAT weaponry, which can allow differentiation with precise instrumentation. _x000D_
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As a potential solution to the problem of space asset failure attribution, we propose the analysis and integration of several existing and developing optical, plasma, and structural health monitoring sensors to create a pseudo “black box” that exists both on-board designated satellites as well as remotely on a diagnostics satellite tasked with downlinking data and observing the health of a select constellation of satellites. These sensors include photodiodes for optical data, the Transient Plasma Analyzer (TPA), the Magnetostatic TPA (MTPA), and the Retarding Potential Analyzer (RPA) for plasma data, patch antennas for RF emission, and piezoelectric sensors for structural deformation sensing. Strategically placed and carefully integrated, data collected from these instruments, coupled with direct comparison of collected measurements with pre-existing ground-based experimental data can bolster efforts to differentiate between deliberate and accidental damage. _x000D_
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The design of the TPA and MTPA are discussed, and initial modeling of all mentioned sensors to derive detection limits is conducted. In addition, an initial sensor-fusion architecture is proposed, and we give estimates of size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the suite. With knowledge of the capabilities of each sensor, as well as information gathered from spacecraft orbital parameters, material composition, charging, and behavior (i.e., whether the spacecraft was transmitting or operating at the time of the incident), we create sample decision trees based on the affirmation or negation of critical information that can lead to well-reasoned predictions of failure root causes. Finally, we present an initial deployment schema for the diagnostic sensor suite on both a designated satellite and on a neighboring satellite for optimized satellite coverage. _x000D_
Date of Conference: September 15-18, 2026
Track: Space Debris