Martin Mlynczak, Space Environment Technologies; W. Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies; Shaylah Mutschler, Space Environment Technologies; Teresa Jensen, Space Dynamics Laboratory; Ryan Martineau, Space Dynamics Laboratory; Thomas Berger, University of Colorado Boulder; Nick Pedatella, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Eric Sutton, University of Colorado Boulder
Keywords: Space weather, space asset positions, space domain awareness, nitric oxide, cubesat, aerodynamic drag, thermosphere, geospace conditions, collision avoidance
Abstract:
Forecasts (three to five days ahead) of LEO satellite and space asset positions require accurate specification of thermospheric density. However, reliable thermospheric density forecasts remain elusive, especially prior to, during, and after highly elevated geomagnetic storm activity. Observations have shown that thermospheric density can increase rapidly and then decrease rapidly during a geomagnetic storm event, leading to significant errors in predicted asset trajectories and collision probabilities. More than twenty years of observations of infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) molecule made by the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite have clearly identified the role of infrared cooling of the thermosphere by NO as a major driver of density variability and recovery during geomagnetic storm events. The field of “space weather” forecasting is now transitioning from index-based and largely empirical models to physics-based models driven by assimilation of real-time observations of the thermosphere/geospace environment. In this talk we present NICEcube – the Nitric oxide Infrared Cooling Emissions cubesat. NICEcube is a 12-U cubesat that can measure, with high accuracy and precision, the vertical profile of radiative cooling (W per cubic meter) from 100 km to 300 km. These data can be delivered in near-real time to operational forecast centers for assimilation into and continuous updating of forecast models. This talk will present the science, the NICEcube top-level instrument specifications and design, and the ‘space weather sentinel’ concept based on a small number of operational NICEcubes.
Date of Conference: September 16-19, 2025
Track: Space-Based Assets