Di Wu, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University
Keywords: Space Sustainability, Quantification, Space Safety, Critical Density, Fragmentation Footprint
Abstract:
We introduce a novel framework that combines simplified analytical models with data- and scenario-driven parameter calibration to provide a holistic quantification of space system safety. Central to this framework is a “fragmentation footprint”, a concept analogous to a carbon footprint but focused on debris generation. We also propose a refined definition of critical density in a multi-shell orbital context, offering a more accurate measure for collision risk and sustainability evaluation. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space Domain Awareness (SDA) efforts increasingly require clear, quantifiable methods to assess risk in crowded orbits, especially given the surge in satellite deployments and missions. By bridging the gap between simplified theoretical models and high-fidelity simulations, our approach helps analysts and policymakers evaluate long-term implications of orbital activities with greater confidence. The “fragmentation footprint” concept, in particular, provides a unified metric that can inform strategies for debris mitigation, mission design, and policy-making. Ultimately, our framework aims to strengthen SSA/SDA capabilities by delivering more robust tools to anticipate and manage critical scenarios, supporting safer and more sustainable use of Earth’s orbital environment.
Date of Conference: September 16-19, 2025
Track: Space Debris