Michael Kezirian, University of Southern California; Max Smith, University of Southern California; George Lloyd, ARCTOS
Keywords: space debr, airspace integration
Abstract:
The planned utilization of space presents an inevitable risk to all airspace. The planned long-term operation of large satellite constellations in Low Earth Orbit and the projected launch vehicle market currently presents a credible hazard. The anticipated utilization of space will lead to risk that are exponentially growing in magnitude. The human consequences as well as the financial loss for even a single event are enormous. The capability to protect users of the airspace will depend on the accuracy and precision of tracking data for reentering space object trajectories and statistical models of their breakup and subsequent debris trajectories. It is also imperative to perform these analyses sufficiently rapidly in order to establish mitigation strategies. This investigation considers the relationship between the precision of orbit tracking and reentry predictions, and the corresponding breakup of objects through reentry. With sufficient object tracking fidelity, informed modeling of breakup states, and accurate propagation of subsequent debris trajectories, the danger to trajectory-based operations in aviation can be limited spatiotemporally to the extent that airspace closures are actionable and economically viable. This capability will encourage tracking of large objects at the end of their on-orbit lifetime, prior to uncontrolled reentry.
Date of Conference: September 17-20, 2024
Track: Space Domain Awareness