Miles Lifson, The Aerospace Corporation; Aniqu Baset, The Aerospace Corporation; Grant Cates, The Aerospace Corporation; Bill Chen, The Aerospace Corporation; Angelo Connor, The Aerospace Corporation; Carson Coursey, The Aerospace Corporation; Gregory Henning, The Aerospace Corporation; Michael Miyamoto, The Aerospace Corporation; Glenn E. Peterson, The Aerospace Corporation; Brian Weeden, The Aerospace Corporation; Grant Williams, The Aerospace Corporation; Indigo Brownhall, University College London; Matthew Burgess, University of Colorado Boulder; Marcus Holzinger, University of Colorado Boulder; Daniel Kaffine, University of Colorado Boulder; Mark Moretto, North Carolina State University; Akhil Rao, Middlebury College
Keywords: Evolutionary Space Environment Modeling, Space Sustainability, Reference Scenarios
Abstract:
Models are widely used to understand potential futures of the space environment and space sustainability risks. In other domains, these models have often been combined with shared reference scenarios to support the development of effective policy solutions. Evolutionary space environment modeling is sensitive to modeling assumptions and inputs, but these inputs often rely on controlled information or are simply not disclosed. At the same time, a lack of a set of common modeling assumptions complicates communication across organizations and interpretation of detailed modeling results from different entities. This work describes preliminary efforts to develop a set of indicative reference scenarios for evolutionary space environment modeling, supported by publicly-releasable input sets. Community feedback is solicited on the proposed scenarios, parameter choices, and data formats. Dubbed, the “Space Environment Pathways” (SEPs), a set of six scenarios are defined along three axes: market demand for space services, non-market demand for space services, and level of space sustainability effort. Various modeling inputs are provided including narrative descriptions of the scenarios, an initial population model, future traffic model, and solar inputs for atmospheric density models. The process by which the scenarios and axes were defined is described. It is argued that a set of shared scenarios would provide multiple benefits to the modeling community including making it easier to develop, verify, and validate new models, supporting integrated assessment modeling, improving public communication about space sustainability, and enabling future adaptive management and governance structures for the space domain.
Date of Conference: September 17-20, 2024
Track: Space Domain Awareness