Cameron Liang, Institute for Defense Analyses; Paul Fanto, Institute for Defense Analyses; Angelo Signoracci, Institute for Defense Analyses;
Keywords: Space Debris, Kessler Syndrome, Statistical Modeling, Orbital Debris, Anti-satellite Tests
Abstract:
The militarization of outer space and development of counterspace technologies is a growing concern, especially as commercial and governmental entities are sending thousands of satellites into orbit. Anti-satellite (ASAT) tests and weapons put the sustainability of space at greater risks because the debris they generate can render space inoperable. The additional debris can kick-start run-away collisions and lead to an exponential growth of debris known as the Kessler Syndrome. This work uses our recent statistical framework to explore the effects of debris injection events on the probability of the Kessler Syndrome occurring. In particular, we use a set of toy models under our statistical framework to explore how the timing and amount of debris generation by ASAT tests can influence future debris growth. We define a risk parameter P_Exp as the probability of run-away debris growth, and show how ASAT tests can dramatically increase its value, especially in a proliferated satellite and debris-filled environment.
Date of Conference: September 19-22, 2023
Track: Space Debris