James Reilly, Booz Allen Hamilton; Matthew Blackford, Booz Allen Hamilton; Jillian Mueller, Booz Allen Hamilton
Keywords: Space Traffic Management, Space Policy, Space Situational Awareness, Space Domain Awareness
Abstract:
This paper will explore technical and policy issues regarding Space Traffic Management (STM) related to the characterization and dissemination of space weather information and the data services challenges to making available integrated multi-source space situational awareness (SSA) tracking information available to all users. Specifically, how those warnings are provided, how SSA services can be made more broadly accessible for the common good and establishing operational standards and thresholds. This paper will assert the necessity of a civil space domain organization similar to the mission of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) that was founded in 1944 in the early days of civil aviation to:
promote the safe and orderly development of civil aviation around the world. The organization sets standards and regulations necessary for aviation safety, security, efficiency, and regularity, as well as for aviation environmental protection. ICAO also serves as a clearinghouse for cooperation and discussion on civil aviation issues
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other governmental agencies have been remarkably successful in developing the commercial environment for Earth orbital industries. We are seeing that success in the rapid, almost exponential, growth in the number of active satellites today compared to that estimated through 2030. The associated trackable debris (>10 cm) volume is also growing but has remained at an approximate 4x multiple of active satellites. Assuming these conditions remain, then approximately 20,000 trackable objects in 2020 will grow to over 160,000 trackable objects by 2030. This presents challenges in tracking, characterization, threat assessment, safety of flight, STM, and data integration.
The National Orbit Debris Research and Development Plan (2021) and the follow-on National Orbital Debris Implementation Plan (2022) identified the following focus areas for improvement of Space Domain Awareness (SDA), Space Environmental Effects, and Safety of Flight Management:
Characterize orbital debris and interactions with the space environment
Improve observations and models for estimated atmospheric drag for better orbital predictions and forecasting
Develop technologies to improve orbital debris tracking and characterization
Reduce uncertainties of debris data in orbit propagation and prediction
Improve data processing, sharing, and filtering of debris catalogs
Transition research on debris tracking and characterization into operational capabilities
The 3 Feb 2022 Starlink incident where the loss of 38 of 49 satellites occurred as the result of increased drag during a G3 class solar event spectacularly illustrates the need for better precision in environmental monitoring, characterization, modeling, and forecasting of atmospheric conditions in the Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) regime. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center provides high-quality information that can now be widely augmented with additional open access and commercial sources. Space Domain Awareness systems are already operating in the commercial market. ExoAnalytics is the first commercial data provider operating a global network of optical tracking systems. LeoLabs has entered the field operating 12 radars at 6 sites providing high-precision tracking of LEO objects. Additional support is provided by an ever-increasing marketplace extending from LEO to lunar orbit. The rapid proliferation of LEO/Very Low Earth Orbiting (VLEO) systems and the entry of commercial entities into the SDA realm is providing a data-rich resource to build the deterministic environmental models leading to better fidelity and longer-range forecasts needed to deliver a responsive and accurate space traffic management system.
To meet the goals of a civil STM capability, the data architecture will need to interact with the existing space domain functions of the U.S. Space Force (USSF) and U.S. Space Command but also integrate with the nascent civil SDA/STM building out of NOAAs Office of Space Commerce. To be effective, the civil SDA/STM will need to seamlessly operate with the USSF Uniform Data Library (UDL), incorporate detailed space weather/environment information from both NOAA and industry sources, deliver an integrated situational awareness of all detectable space objects, determine current and future locations of active satellites within this environment, perform conjunction analyses, warn of potential collisions, and provide these data and notices within a low-latency, easily accessible communications framework. Additionally, a common means of sharing course of action capabilities for maneuverable assets that does not disclose critical vulnerabilities, will be important to formulate potential recommended responses to collision warning messages. To meet these demands, a foundational data/services framework will be required. Operating within Cloud-Cloud environments, and with an any source integrated calibration/validation data repository, the integrated SDA/STM environment will provide current and future motions of tracked objects, identify and assess any changes of state (fragmentation or maneuvers), and ideally forecast changes to the operational environment in response to solar effects. Alerts and warnings will need to be delivered as close to near real-time as possible and will depend on an as yet defined rules of the road for conflict resolution for recommended actions.
Date of Conference: September 19-22, 2023
Track: Space Domain Awareness