Rina Zhang, Science and Technology Policy Institute; Asha Balakrishnan, Science and Technology Policy Institute
Keywords: International policy, global commons
Abstract:
The Earths atmosphere and densely populated orbital regions are physically adjacent but practically dissimilar in manifold ways. Nevertheless, in analyzing structural similarities of the large-scale challenges posed by ozone depletion and orbital debris and their proposed and implemented solutions we identify a number of useful analogies that may help inform the design of international policy approaches for orbital debris. The signing and subsequent implementation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a notable example of when the international community effectively mobilized to address the detrimental environmental impacts of anthropogenic activity. This paper illustrates parallels between the two problems and attempts a comparative historical analysis to identify lessons learned from the Montreal Protocol that may be applicable to orbital debris. The focus is on how the international community came together and addressed this global issue.
The first step of our analysis is to outline a foundational framework for the problems and solutions of ozone depletion and orbital debris to enable a comparative approach. A commons-based framework that draws upon the work of Dr. Elinor Ostrom is used to compare the two problems. The Earths atmosphere is broadly accepted as a global commons; some argue that outer space is also a common-pool resource that must be maintained for future generations. We choose to define outer space as a global commons by highlighting its similarities to well-established examples of these domains and demonstrating how the use of space resources is similarly non-exclusive and subtractive, providing a motivation for collective action to govern their use.
Next, based on literature review and informational interviews, we identify a solutions framework using a multi-pronged approach in which activities fall into functional categories that vary in sequence and scope: monitoring and measurement, mitigation, remediation, and adaptation. This taxonomy is frequently used in environmental management approaches and each activity can be further divided into specific stakeholder actions.
In the context of orbital debris, monitoring and measurement techniques are used to track and characterize debris, mitigation strategies reduce debris creation by improving satellite hardware and designing for demise, and remediation activities such as active debris removal have been proposed but remain largely untested in the space environment. Adaptation includes non-technological but critical aspects of solution implementation such as industry collaboration and international diplomacy. The inclusion of adaptation strategies in this framework reflects the need for approaches that are forward-looking and flexible in the face of shifting scientific uncertainties, technological advances, and changing public opinion.
Likewise, we describe monitoring and measurement techniques employed in the historic and ongoing detection and tracing of emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), mitigation of ODS emissions achieved through international reductions in the production and use of ODS, and proposed remediation strategies for ODS (which ultimately were not pursued to any significant extent by the signers of the Protocol). Originally signed in 1987, the Montreal Protocol remains a model for international cooperation on environmental issues, and we analyze how adaptability in the face of scientific uncertainties and shifting perspectives within the industry, government, and public has contributed to the Protocols successes thus far.
The solutions framework is used to identify barriers to addressing orbital debris and ozone depletion. By identifying common barriers and considering how the designers of the Montreal Protocol were able to overcome them, we highlight examples of solutions that could be informative when considering international solutions to the problem of orbital debris.
Key monitoring and measurement challenges for orbital debris addressed in our recommendations include insufficient data on existing orbital debris populations, uncertainties in object position and velocity measurements, and operational difficulties in tracking the growing debris population. Mitigation challenges for orbital debris include a lack of positive or negative incentives for compliance with established best practices (e.g., preventing emission during launch, employing collision avoidance techniques, and adopting post-mission disposal strategies for end-of-life) that minimize debris creation. Challenges to debris remediation include a lack of market incentives for debris removal (which leads to the free-rider problem), target prioritization, potentially counterproductive operations, and long-term sustainability. The design of adaptation strategies must be informed by international legal frameworks, national policies, and economic perspectives; balancing the often-disparate interests of diverse stakeholders is a major challenge.
Date of Conference: September 27-20, 2022
Track: Space Debris