Juan Gutierrez, KBR; Keric Hill, KBR; Erica Jenson, University of Colorado Boulder; Daniel Scheeres, University of Colorado Boulder; Jill C. Bruer, AFRL/RV; Ryan D. Coder,AFRL/RV
Keywords: cislunar; space domain awareness; estimation theory
Abstract:
While the evolution of state uncertainties in geocentric orbits from Gaussian to non-Gaussian is well understood, the only data product made publicly available by the United States Space Force, the Two-Line Element, does not include state uncertainties at all. With a new international focus on cislunar space domain awareness, it is necessary to determine how this complex dynamics environment influences trajectory uncertainties and the resultant implications for data association, orbit determination, and force model algorithms. This paper utilizes a new tensor eigenpair measure of nonlinearity (TEMoN) to quantify the nonlinearity of gravitational forces in the cislunar regime. This measure is then compared with various characterizations of Gaussian distributions to determine at what non-linear strength trajectory uncertainties become non-Gaussian. This novel advancement combines the cumulative effect of time and physical location of the trajectory into one value. The result is a predictive method that obviates highly parameterized Monte Carlo runs, and allows an objective assessment of how sensor tasking cadence, measurement uncertainty, and force model selection can be balanced to enable nascent cislunar space domain awareness capabilities with legacy space surveillance network assets.
Date of Conference: September 27-20, 2022
Track: Cislunar SSA