Matthew Stevenson, LeoLabs; Darren McKnight, LeoLabs; Hugh Lewis, University of Southampton; Chris Kunstadter, AXA XL; Rachit Bhatia, LeoLabs
Keywords: debris collision risk, space object population modeling
Abstract:
The mapping of all close approaches in low Earth orbit (LEO) by probability, consequence, and risk provides insight into both the current and future debris collision hazards. The probability is determined by the miss distance, hard body radius, and covariance derived by the LeoLabs data platform. The consequence is characterized by loss of satellite mission and/or mass involved in the event (which in turn represents the amount of debris likely produced). Monitoring the ensemble of LeoLabs-collected conjunction data identifies the statistically-most-concerning events of the last year with two families of events: (1) between operational satellites and debris (includes fragments and intact derelict objects) and (2) between massive derelict objects. The events with operational satellites provide a baseline of potential mission-terminating events (i.e., the current debris collision risk). The collection of potential collisions between massive derelicts indicates potential sources of debris that will drive assessment of future mission-terminating collisions. The conjunction data is parsed by object name, object type, altitude, risk, and country of origin. This analysis highlights the criticality of looking at debris collision risk holistically by altitude and not just by the operators involved in close approaches.
Date of Conference: September 14-17, 2021
Track: Conjunction/RPO