Nathan Boone, Air Force Institute of Technology; Robert Bettinger,Air Force Institute of Technology
https://doi.org/10.64861/RDFY8725
Keywords: debris, space, artificial, lunar, cislunar, kessler syndrome, Artemis, Gateway, Moon
Abstract:
This research analyzes the effects of a catastrophic spacecraft mishap in a polar lunar orbit in terms of the risks posed to a notional lunar spacecraft operating in an Apollo-like, equatorial lunar orbit. Robust models for lunar trajectories, the survivability of spacecraft threatened by debris, and the vulnerability of spacecraft to debris are developed and used to quantify the risks from artificial lunar debris. The results of this research showed total one-month hazard probabilities on the order of about 10?3%. While low, this probability could create some concern in real-world missions and may be comparable to the risk from debris in orbits near Earth. The majority of the debris particles had not decayed to the lunar surface by the end of the one-month simulation, which resulted in risk levels that did not diminish within one month. The results of this study demonstrate the need to consider debris mitigation strategies in lunar orbit, especially as more spacecraft begin to operate in this orbital environment.
Date of Conference: September 14-17, 2021
Track: Cislunar SSA