David Buehler, AFRL/RV; Dane Fuller, AFIT/CSRA; John Colombi, AFIT/ENV; William Wiesel, AFIT/ENY; Dave Meyer, AFIT/ENY; Richard Cobb, AFIT/ENY
https://doi.org/10.64861/JCQT8511
Keywords: Space debris, modeling, supercomputing, high performance computing, collision likelihood
Abstract:
The likelihood of on-orbit breakups, whether spontaneous or the result of collision, will likely continue to grow as the barriers of entry to and use of space are reduced. In all orbital regimes, especially Low Earth Orbit (LEO), preparation to respond quickly when the next breakup occurs is critical. This research utilizes high-performance parallel computation along with Python-driven Systems Tool Kit (STK) to model a large-scale on-orbit breakup in LEO, with the goal to meet a proposed operational need of notification within 90 minutes. The simulated breakup is characterized by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) EVOLVE 4.0 breakup model and is completely scalable. The debris field is analyzed over the course of one week using Gabbard plots. The risk posed by the breakup is determined using STKs Advanced Close Approach Tool (ACAT) to report minimum range, minimum separation, and likelihood of collision between the debris and catalog objects. The field is screened for close approaches each day of the week and the probability of collision is computed using multiple linear conjunction models (Alfano, Patera, Chan, & Alfano Maximum Likelihood) to observe how different models predict the likelihood of collision. This research represents the first steps toward being prepared to respond in the event of an on-orbit breakup.
Date of Conference: September 11-14, 2018
Track: Poster