Charlotte Shabarekh, Aptima, Inc., Jordan Kent-Bryant, Aptima, Inc., Gene Keselman, LEO Projects, LLC, Andonis Mitidis, Aptima, Inc.
Keywords: Space Situational Awareness, Maneuver Prediction, Machine Learning, Activity Based Intelligence, Patterns of Life
Abstract:
A space operations tradecraft consisting of detect-track-characterize-catalog is insufficient for maintaining Space Situational Awareness (SSA) as space becomes increasingly congested and contested. In this paper, we apply analytical methodology from the Geospatial-Intelligence (GEOINT) community to a key challenge in SSA: predicting where and when a satellite may maneuver in the future. We developed a machine learning approach to probabilistically characterize Patterns of Life (PoL) for geosynchronous (GEO) satellites. PoL are repeatable, predictable behaviors that an object exhibits within a context and is driven by spatio-temporal, relational, environmental and physical constraints. An example of PoL are station-keeping maneuvers in GEO which become generally predictable as the satellite re-positions itself to account for orbital perturbations. In an earlier publication, we demonstrated the ability to probabilistically predict maneuvers of the Galaxy 15 (NORAD ID: 28884) satellite with high confidence eight days in advance of the actual maneuver. Additionally, we were able to detect deviations from expected PoL within hours of the predicted maneuver [6]. This was done with a custom unsupervised machine learning algorithm, the Interval Similarity Model (ISM), which learns repeating intervals of maneuver patterns from unlabeled historical observations and then predicts future maneuvers. In this paper, we introduce a supervised machine learning algorithm that works in conjunction with the ISM to produce a probabilistic distribution of when future maneuvers will occur. The supervised approach uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) to process the orbit state whereas the ISM processes the temporal intervals between maneuvers and the physics-based characteristics of the maneuvers. This multiple model approach capitalizes on the mathematical strengths of each respective algorithm while incorporating multiple features and inputs. Initial findings indicate that the combined approach can predict 70% of maneuver times within 3 days of a true maneuver time and 22% of maneuver times within 24 hours of a maneuver. We have also been able to detect deviations from expected maneuver patterns up to a week in advance.
Date of Conference: September 20-23, 2016
Track: Space Situational Awareness