Dan Oltrogge (Analytical Graphics, Inc.), Jens Ramrath (Analytical Graphics, Inc.)
Keywords: SGP4, orbit accuracy, orbit precision, Enhanced GP, TLEs
Abstract:
Two-Line Elements, or TLEs, contain mean element state vectors compatible with General Perturbations (GP) singly-averaged semi-analytic orbit theory. This theory, embodied in the SGP4 orbit propagator, provides sufficient accuracy for some (but perhaps not all) orbit operations and SSA tasks. For more demanding tasks, higher accuracy orbit and force model approaches (i.e. Special Perturbations numerical integration or SP) may be required. In recent times, the suitability of TLEs or GP theory for any SSA analysis has been increasingly questioned. Meanwhile, SP is touted as being of high quality and well-suited for most, if not all, SSA applications. Yet the lack of truth or well-known reference orbits that havent already been adopted for radar and optical sensor network calibration has typically prevented a truly unbiased assessment of such assertions. To gain better insight into the practical limits of applicability for TLEs, SGP4 and the underlying GP theory, the native SGP4 accuracy is parametrically examined for the statistically-significant range of RSO orbit inclinations experienced as a function of all orbit altitudes from LEO through GEO disposal altitude. For each orbit altitude, reference or truth orbits were generated using full force modeling, time-varying space weather, and AGIs HPOP numerical integration orbit propagator. Then, TLEs were optimally fit to these truth orbits. The resulting TLEs were then propagated and positionally differenced with the truth orbits to determine how well the GP theory was able to fit the truth orbits. Resultant statistics characterizing these empirically-derived accuracies are provided. This TLE fit process of truth orbits was intentionally designed to be similar to the JSpOC process operationally used to generate Enhanced GP TLEs for debris objects. This allows us to draw additional conclusions of the expected accuracies of EGP TLEs. In the real world, Orbit Determination (OD) programs arent provided with dense optical or radar observations having ideal viewing geometries. The result is that the idealized performance of the GP orbit theory is typically unachievable, having been degraded by other critical aspects of the OD process. We will explore some of these aspects, as well as their ability to degrade orbit solutions and subsequent orbit predictions, not only in TLEs but in the higher-fidelity SP orbit solutions.
Date of Conference: September 9-12, 2014
Track: Poster