Harry Warren (Naval Research Laboratory), John Emmert (Naval Research Laboratory)
https://doi.org/10.64861/EFIR7371
Keywords: solar activity, thermospheric density, satellite drag
Abstract:
A detailed understanding of solar irradiance and its variability at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths is required to model thermospheric density and to specify and forecast satellite drag. Current operational models rely on forecasts of proxies for solar activity based on autoregression. The forecasts from these models generally degrade to climatology after only a few days. Solar magnetic fields are ultimately responsible for variations in the EUV irradiance. The evolution of solar magnetic fields is well understood and results from a combination of solar rotation, diffusion, meridional flow, and magnetic flux emergence. In this presentation we review the current state of autoregressive proxy models and compare their forecast skill against new activity models based on magnetic flux transport.
Date of Conference: September 9-12, 2014
Track: Poster