David Sibert (ExoAnalytic Solutions, Inc.), Maj David Borgeson (USAF Space Command Space and Missile Systems Center), Glenn Peterson (The Aerospace Corporation), Alan Jenkin (The Aerospace Corporation), Marlon Sorge (The Aerospace Corporation)
Keywords: Integrating Diverse Data
Abstract:
Even if global space policy successfully curtails on orbit explosions and ASAT demonstrations, studies indicate that the number of debris objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will continue to grow solely from debris on debris collisions and debris generated from new launches. This study examines the threat posed by this growing space debris population over the next 30 years and how improvements in our space tracking capabilities can reduce the number of Collision Avoidance (COLA) maneuvers required keep the risk of operational satellite loss within tolerable limits. Particular focus is given to satellites operated by the Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The following debris field and space tracking performance parameters were varied parametrically in the experiment to study the impact on the number of collision avoidance maneuvers required: – Debris Field Density (by year 2009, 2019, 2029, and 2039) – Quality of Track Update (starting 1 sigma error ellipsoid) – Future Propagator Accuracy (error ellipsoid growth rates – Special Perturbations in 3 axes) – Track Update Rate for Debris (stochastic) – Track Update Rate for Payloads (stochastic) Baseline values matching present day tracking performance for quality of track update, propagator accuracy, and track update rate were derived by analyzing updates to the unclassified Satellite Catalog (SatCat). Track update rates varied significantly for active payloads and debris and as such we used different models for the track update rates for military payloads and debris. The analysis was conducted using the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) an agent based model developed by the United States Air Force Space Commands Space and Missile Systems Center to evaluate the military utility of space systems. The future debris field was modeled by The Aerospace Corporation using a tool chain which models the growth of the 10cm+ debris field using high fidelity propagation, collision, and breakup models. Our analysis uses Two Line Element (TLE) sets and surface area data generated by this model sampled at the years 2019, 2029, and 2039. Data for the 2009 debris field is taken from the unclassified SatCat. By using Monte Carlo simulation techniques and varying the epoch of the military constellation relative to the debris field we were able to remove the bias of initial conditions. Additional
Date of Conference: September 14-17, 2010
Track: Integrating Diverse Data