David Finkleman (Center for Space Standards and Innovation, Analytical Graphics, Inc.), Salvatore Alfano (Center for Space Standards and Innovation, Analytical Graphics, Inc.), Tom Johnson (Center for Space Standards and Innovation, Analytical Graphics, Inc.), T.S. Kelso (Center for Space Standards and Innovation, Analytical Graphics, Inc.), David Vallado (Center for Space Standards and Innovation, Analytical Graphics, Inc.), Daniel Oltrogge (1Earth Research, LLC)
Keywords: Orbital Debris
Abstract:
We present the space debris operational process in the context of real circumstances that would have required early assessment, prompt warning, and responsive mitigations. We have applied several widely used collision and explosion models to the prompt debris environment, short term moderation of the debris cloud through reentry, mid-term assessment of conjunctions with operational satellites, and identification of the long term persistent aftermath. We provide distributions of fragment sizes, masses, and radar cross sections which we use to identify the trackable population and the remaining population
which is either imperceptible to space surveillance radars. We examine predicted conjunctions between FY1C Debris (Catalog 31473)/Meteor 2-2, FY1C Debris (31379)/Meteor 2-12, and ISIS-2/Cosmos 2271. These illustrate early assessment of collision probability and consequences, triage among high probability conjunctions to conduct additional analysis judiciously, and the consequences of collisions between objects of disparate masses. We highlight deficiencies in essential analytical tools and databases. We offer guidance for further investigation and seek better capabilities to serve this important need.
Date of Conference: September 16-19, 2008
Track: Orbital Debris