Minchan Song, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology; Jaewoo Kim, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology; Jaemyung Ahn, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
https://doi.org/10.64861/GKQP1223
Keywords: Space Debris Remediation, LEO Environment Evolution, Scenario-Based Decision Making, Mission Planning, Modular Inventory, Operational Recourse
Abstract:
Space debris remediation can create benefits for many orbital operators, yet a service provider must prepare costly hardware before the future Low Earth Orbit environment and the resulting demand are known. The enterprise decision is therefore broader than selecting a debris object or designing one spacecraft: it must determine which modular hardware to prepare and how that common stock can support different feasible missions after future conditions are observed.
This paper presents a decision-support framework that links client needs and future orbital-population scenarios to that decision. Scenario-conditioned population states change the value and accessibility of remediation targets. Feasible Carrier-Kit disposal and Tug recycling mission candidates are then constructed, with their remediation value, cost, facility use, and module demand. Scenario-dependent mission candidates are ranked with respect to various criteria and combined to construct alternative module inventories.
Expected and worst-case objective policy searches compare these inventories on one shared module library, allowing commercial viability, public support, architecture coverage, and cross-scenario module use to be examined. A five-scenario case study varies launch cost and traffic, post-mission disposal compliance, recycling efficiency, and protected-asset value. The analysis asks whether a private operating case exists, whether public support is justified by avoided loss outside the client contract, how expected and worst-case decisions differ, and whether one prepared module inventory can serve several future scenarios.
Under the tested conditions, private revenue does not cover recurring module and mission execution costs, so the private decision is to prepare no inventory. Meaningful decisions appear only when the minimum required transfer is supported inside a public willingness-to-pay ceiling. The expected decision retains more average modeled public value, whereas the worst-case decision sacrifices part of that upside to improve the limiting scenario.
Most utilized modules belong to a common module core and are assigned to intended, equivalent, or closely matched missions across the scenarios. The framework thus provides a traceable basis for evaluating space debris remediation as a conditional private-public service system.
Date of Conference: September 15-18, 2026
Track: Space Debris