Koller, Josef, Brennan, Sean M., Godinez Vazquez, Humberto C., Higdon, David M., Klimenko, Alexei V., Larsen, Brian A., Lawrence, Earl C., Linares, Richard, Mehta, Piyush, Palmer, David, Shoemaker, Michael A., Thompson, David C. Walker, Andrew C., Wohlberg, Brendt E., Jah, Moriba, Sutton, Eric, Kelecy, Thomas, Ridley, Aaron, McLaughlin, Craig
Keywords: atmospheric drag, DSMC, space weather modeling, integrated approach, uncertainty quantification, conjunction analysis
Abstract:
Space weather and satellite drag are intricately linked through complex physical mechanisms in the upper atmosphere and thermosphere. Density changes due to changes in the solar cycle and space weather events can increase or decrease the drag force on satellites by several orders of magnitude. As a matter of fact, satellite drag due to atmospheric density changes is the most important non-conservative force for low-Earth orbiting (LEO) objects but currently insufficiently understood and modeled. The IMPACT project (Integrated Modeling of Perturbations in the Atmosphere for Conjunction Tracking) has the goal to address three critical areas of research: (1) atmospheric drag modeling, (2) conjunction analysis, and (3) uncertainty quantification. IMPACT is developing an integrated solution combining physics-based density modeling of the upper atmosphere between 120-700 km altitude, satellite drag forecasting for quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions, and conjunction analysis with non-Gaussian uncertainty quantification. We employ several novel approaches including data assimilative modeling using a physics-based approach instead of empirical modeling of the thermosphere. The goal of this project is to develop the ability to monitor and track space objects during highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions and provide suitable forecasts for satellite drag conditions and conjunction analysis for low Earth orbit. We will present an overview of this project with first results and future outlook.
Date of Conference: September 10-13, 2013
Track: Astrodynamics