Ryan Frigm, Omitron, Inc., Lauren Johnson, Omitron, Inc.
Keywords: conjunction, collision, orbital debris, SSA
Abstract:
The Probability of Collision (Pc) has become a universal metric and statement of on-orbit collision risk. Although several flavors of the computation exist and are well-documented in the literature, the basic calculation requires the same input: estimates for the position, position uncertainty, and sizes of the two objects involved. The Pc is used operationally to make decisions on whether a given conjunction poses significant collision risk to the primary object (or space asset of concern). It is also used to determine necessity and degree of mitigative action (typically in the form of an orbital maneuver) to be performed. The predicted post-maneuver Pc also informs the maneuver planning process into regarding the timing, direction, and magnitude of the maneuver needed to mitigate the collision risk. Although the data sources, techniques, decision calculus, and workflows vary for different agencies and organizations, they all have a common thread. The standard conjunction assessment and collision risk concept of operations (CONOPS) predicts conjunctions, assesses the collision risk (typically, via the Pc), and plans and executes avoidance activities for conjunctions as a discrete events.
As the space debris environment continues to increase and improvements are made to remote sensing capabilities and sensitivities to detect, track, and predict smaller debris objects, the number of conjunctions will in turn continue to increase. The expected order-of-magnitude increase in the number of predicted conjunctions will challenge the paradigm of treating each conjunction as a discrete event. The challenge will not be limited to workload issues, such as manpower and computing performance, but also the ability for satellite owner/operators to successfully execute their mission while also managing on-orbit collision risk. Executing a propulsive maneuver occasionally can easily be absorbed into the mission planning and operations tempo; whereas, continuously planning evasive maneuvers for multiple conjunction events is time-consuming and would disrupt mission and science operations beyond what is tolerable. At the point when the number of conjunctions is so large that it is no longer possible to consider each individually, some sort of an amalgamation of events and risk must be considered. This shift is to one where each conjunction cannot be treated individually and the effects of all conjunctions within a given period of time must be considered together. This new paradigm is called finite Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk management.
This paper considers the use of the Total Probability of Collision (TPc) as an analogous collision risk metric in the finite CA paradigm. TPc is expressed by the equation below and provides an aggregate probability of colliding with any one of the predicted conjunctions under consideration. TPc=1-?(1-Pc,i) While the TPc computation is straightforward and its physical meaning is understandable, the implications of its usage operationally requires a change in mindset and approach to collision risk management. This paper explores the necessary changes to evolve the basic CA and collision risk management CONOPS from discrete to finite CA, including aspects of collision risk assessment and collision risk mitigation. It proposes numerical and graphical decision aids to understand both the risk outlook for a given primary as well as mitigation options for the total collision risk. Both concepts make use of the TPc as a metric for finite collision risk management. Several operational scenarios are used to demonstrate the proposed concepts in practice.
Date of Conference: September 15-18, 2015
Track: Astrodynamics