Mark Vincent, Raytheon
Keywords: probability of collision forecasting, covariance scaling
Abstract:
A computer program named PC4 has been created to produce the confidence levels that future Probability of Collision (Pc) will not exceed chosen thresholds. Its results compared favorably to those from an earlier spreadsheet version using the same algorithms. Insights into the bounding values of both current and future Pc values were obtained. The need for state covariance scaling and improved modeling of solar activity/atmospheric density is presented. The recommended post-maneuver thresholds for maneuver planning are also presented.
Date of Conference: September 20-23, 2016
Track: Poster