Mark Pittelkau, Solers, Inc.
Keywords: Space Situational Awareness, Space object maneuver detection
Abstract:
An important aspect of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is detection of deliberate and accidental orbit changes of space objects. Although space surveillance systems detect orbit maneuvers within their tracking algorithms, maneuver data are not readily disseminated for general use. However, two-line element (TLE) data is available and can be used to detect maneuvers of space objects. This work is an attempt to improve upon existing TLE-based maneuver detection algorithms. Three adaptive maneuver detection algorithms are developed and evaluated: The first is a fading-memory Kalman filter, which is equivalent to the sliding-window least-squares polynomial fit, but computationally more efficient and adaptive to the noise in the TLE data. The second algorithm is based on a sample cumulative distribution function (CDF) computed from a histogram of the magnitude-squared |V|2 of change-in-velocity vectors (V), which is computed from the TLE data. A maneuver detection threshold is computed from the median estimated from the CDF, or from the CDF and a specified probability of false alarm. The third algorithm is a median filter. The median filter is the simplest of a class of nonlinear filters called order statistics filters, which is within the theory of robust statistics. The output of the median filter is practically insensitive to outliers, or large maneuvers. The median of the |V|2 data is proportional to the variance of the V, so the variance is estimated from the output of the median filter. A maneuver is detected when the input data exceeds a constant times the estimated variance.
Date of Conference: September 20-23, 2016
Track: Poster