Asha Balakrishnan, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute; Sara Carioscia, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute; Becaja Caldwell, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute; Bhavya Lal, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute
Keywords: Space Situational Awareness, SSA, Space Traffic Management, STM, Global Trends, Global Cooperation, International Collaboration
Abstract:
Whereas 50 years ago, the United States and the Soviet Union were the major players in space, now over 80 countries have one or more space-based interests. Over 1,700 active satellites are in Earth orbitapproximately twice as many as there were only a decade ago. In addition to active satellites, the number of inactive objects and debris has been growing at an increasing rate. Known collision events like the Iridium-Cosmos collision in 2009 and the Chinese antisatellite test in 2007 have caused dramatic spikes in the number of smaller objects in orbitthe debris created by both of these events accounts for over one third of the total objects cataloged in low Earth orbit (LEO). This increasing population of existing satellites and space debris has created two main challenges for safe space operations. The first challenge lies in the difficulty of detecting and tracking objects in Earth orbit, making it even more difficult to predict future trajectories of these objects. The second is in using this information about future trajectories to detect and prevent future collisions between space objects, which could damage or destroy functional satellites and generate additional orbital debris.
Meeting these challenges will become more difficult and costly in the future. An estimated 3,800 satellites are scheduled to be launched through 2020. Recent studies have attempted to assess the impact of the projected launch rates. One study estimates that just one of these large constellations of small satellites could increase the number of conjunctions (i.e., close approaches between objects) by a factor of 70 compared to today. Failing to improve the accuracy and reliability of current conjunction analysis techniques will result in a massive increase in false positives as the number of space objects resulting from both human placement and naturally occurring conjunctions increases over time.
Up until recently, the United States was the sole leader in space tracking activity, referred to as space situational awareness (SSA). However, given the growing importance of space in countries around the world, and the prospect of profiting from providing this information, there is growing national and private expertise in SSA globally. The quality and number of both ground- and space-based sensors is increasing worldwide. There is also better understanding of atmospheric and space physics, prediction algorithms, and data analytics/fusion capabilities, both in governments and in the private sector globally. Overall, the U.S. national security enterprise, once the sole expert in SSA, is losing its monopoly as at least a dozen companies and countries around the world are accruing these capabilities.
In this paper, the authors will present findings from a recent study of factors affecting current and emerging global trends in SSA and Space Traffic Management (STM). The findings will identify external factors driving the foreign governments and private operators towards more independence with respect to SSA capabilities. In addition, global trends in SSA data collection, data processing, SSA products and the oversight and coordination of the SSA community will be discussed.
We will also present results from an analytic exercise that evaluated four scenarios of how SSA services might be delivered in the next decade. The scenarios are derived from variations on two dimensions: degree of government control (government vs. private) and degree of internationalization (domestic vs. international). For each scenario, we describe who the key players are, where SSA data come from, and how data are processed to generate SSA products and services.
Scenario 1 is the extension of the current U.S. Government-led system. In this scenario, the United States Government (USG), through either a military or civilian lead agency, remains the primary source of SSA data and services for the global space community. Scenario 2 is a private sector-led SSA system dominated by U.S. entities. In this scenario, a consortium of primarily U.S. companies is the main provider of SSA data. The consortium would collect and process data and provide SSA products data and services to operators and governments that are either members of the consortium or otherwise pay for information services. Scenario 3 is a globally-governed SSA system where the main source of SSA data is a global, government-led SSA system with centralized operations fed by government and private nodes spread worldwide. Finally, Scenario 4 describes a system where there are many national SSA systems. In this scenario, each government owns and runs SSA systems, sharing data as each sees fit. This scenario assumes that SSA would be inexpensive enough that each country can have its own system without depending on the USG or other international private or public databases.
Date of Conference: September 11-14, 2018
Track: Space Situational Awareness