Benjamin Skopic, Institute for Defense Analyses; Cameron Liang, Institute for Defense Analyses; Hannah Yi, Institute for Defense Analyses
Keywords: SERPENS, mission availability, collision avoidance maneuvers, orbital debris
Abstract:
Space is becoming more crowded with both satellites and orbital debris as more proliferated constellations come online. While the risk of Kessler syndrome remains a topic of intense debate, the effects of increased maneuvering pose a significant risk to satellite operations. More frequent collision conjunctions in increasingly congested orbits will compel operators to perform more maneuvers; degrading a satellite’s real-time performance and reducing its overall operational lifespan. To quantify these mission-level impacts, IDA has developed the Space Environment Risk Prediction by Evaluating Numerical Simulations (SERPENS) model. SERPENS uses a numerical propagator to determine orbits, evaluate conjunctions, execute maneuvers, and perform mission tasks. Using SERPENS, we show how the operational availability (Ao) of the Flock constellation is impacted by the current debris environment and notional debris-generating events. Quantifying the operational impact of debris-generating events enhances the ability to forecast mission readiness and the on-orbit lifespan of satellites.
Date of Conference: September 16-19, 2025
Track: Conjunction/RPO