W. Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies; Marcin D. Pilinski, Space Environment Technologies; Shaylah Mutschler, Space Environment Technologies; Kaiya Wahl, Space Environment Technologies; Jean Yoshii, Space Environment Technologies; Dave Bouwer, Space Environment Technologies; Piyush Mehta, West Virginia University ; Richard Licata, West Virginian University
Keywords: HASDM, thermosphere density, space weather
Abstract:
Effective space traffic management requires an accurate knowledge of the variability in upper atmosphere densities. Data assimilative modeling, where physics-based models are informed by measurements, provides the most accurate capability today for specifying and predicting space weather. Ensemble modeling, where multiple models are run for an epoch, provides an excellent methodology for characterizing the range of variability. We report on several operational capabilities that are in development to support space traffic management and collision assessment as produced by the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM). These include:
Multiple model runs in ensemble mode on operational servers to provide range of variability expected at an epoch;
Data assimilation concepts addressing the 100–200 km thermosphere temperature characterization;
Uncertainty quantification in the drivers and output of HASDM; and
Upcoming science-based improvements that will improve the accuracy of HASDM.
Date of Conference: September 27-20, 2022
Track: Atmospherics/Space Weather