Kaitlyn Johnson, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Seamus P. Daniels, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Keywords: policy, budget, defense, space domain awareness
Abstract:
This paper tracks investments in U.S. national security space missions from about fiscal year (FY) 1999 to the present as a means of identifying how priorities in the military space enterprise have evolved. Space capabilities of the first space age, which is roughly defined from the development of the first satellites to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, were dominated by missions that supported the nuclear enterprise: command and control; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); and missile warning. Since 1991, however, space capabilities have diversified to include a variety of missions to support both nuclear and conventional forces, such as positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), space domain awareness (SDA), weather, communications, and counterspace capabilities, among others. Tracking historical budget data from the Department of Defense (DoD) illustrates how the military’s prioritization of and investments in specific missions have shifted over the course of the 21st century. As part of this effort, the paper reviews organizational changes within the national security space enterprise to identify how the creation and/or consolidation of specific organizations have aligned with shifts in funding. Additionally, it shows how trends in investments change as geopolitical needs or capabilities shift by contextualizing changes in funding with rhetorical and policy shifts from the DoD, White House, and statements on military space and broader national security. These trends are identified through official documents such as defense strategy reviews, congressional statements and testimonies, and space policy directives.
As part of this study, the authors compiled a data set across more than twenty years of defense acquisition data to track DoD RDT&E and procurement funding at the line item level across all military space missions. While DoD may make other investments in space missions (to include operations & maintenance (O&M) and military construction (MILCON) funding), acquisition data allows for the most consistent and granular level of analysis by individual programs. The authors then developed a categorization system to group programs by mission area and identify limitations within the dataset, such as classified spending.
An initial review of the data shows that the primary focus of the national security space enterprise from a budgetary perspective has varied considerably between FY 1999 and the FY 2022 budget request. In FY 1999, funding for space launch constituted over half of DoD’s disclosed space acquisition funds. Launch funding was overtaken by communications funding in FY 2002, which grew from $142 million in FY 1999 to nearly $3.8 billion in FY 2010, adjusted for inflation. Funding for other missions have also fluctuated significantly over time, including missile warning and PNT. Interestingly, the ratio of RDT&E to procurement funding has also changed over time. Between FY 2000 and FY 2008, DoD made greater investments in space-related RDT&E accounts while procurement accounts received more funding between FY 2009 and FY 2017. However, since FY 2019, DoD’s RDT&E request for space has been more than double that of procurement. Further analysis will assess the underlying trends in program-level funding that have contributed to these broader patterns and what that indicates in terms of strategy and policy shifts for military space missions.
In addition to identifying general high-level trends in the U.S. defense budget over time, several case studies allow for deeper research and analysis. Space domain awareness (SDA) is a foundational capability for all other space activities, and this research pays particular attention to trends in funding for SDA capabilities. The space policy community is continually calling for more information and better awareness of actions and activities in spaceto increase sustainability of the domain and better identify and protect assets from space threats (both natural and human-made). This trend has been reflected in the budget with funding for SDA increasing from below $50 million in FY 2016 to nearly $1 billion in the FY 2022 request. This paper will examine the research and develpment, and procurement budgets from DoD for SDA over the years and align the data with stated policy priorities.
The complexities of U.S. defense spending are not often considered in space policy research. The findings from this paper will have significant implications for policymakers by providing a complete picture of unclassified national security space investments and how military space funding may shift as priorities, policy, and strategy for national security space evolve.
Date of Conference: September 27-20, 2022
Track: SSA/SDA