Kristin Shahady, University of North Dakota
Keywords: GEO Assets, Debris, Contested LEO Environments
Abstract:
As new threats to critical space assets emerge, the US and its allies need to be creative in adapting to previously negligible vulnerabilities. Large, solitary satellites that provide essential services to us on the ground are uniquely assailable. One solution under consideration would be launching constellation systems comprised of multiple, smaller satellites, which would purportedly decrease the likelihood of any one strike from crippling those essential services. However, approach is unsustainable, accelerates the risk of decreasing access to space, and increases the threat of debris. A large amount of debris creates hazards for critical Space Situational Awareness (“SSA”) and Space Domain Awareness (“SDA”) on-orbit assets and adds complexity for ground observers to track and lose sight on important assets.
An alternative solution would be utilizing On-Orbit Services (“OOS”), which helps solve not only the vulnerability of individual satellites, but also externalities created by the threat of debris. This research will explore the intrinsic value of GEO orbital slots is increasing as LEO orbital spheres are more contested and threatened by debris.
In GEO, OOS promotes resilience to large assets by providing additional life to these satellites. With OOS, space-based assets now have the ability to be taxied, repaired, and have a mechanism to respond when the spacecraft itself does not respond. Since GEO satellites are the most difficult to target in an ASAT capacity, these services are essential to protect GEO assets from harm. With GEO servicers from multiple companies ready to service these spacecrafts if something goes wrong, this should ultimately deter any attack on the critical assets. In addition to fixing, refueling and moving satellites, these servicers are also capable of In-Space Situational Awareness (ISSA) providing vital intel through inspection and imaging of any incoming and unwelcome spacecraft on a trajectory to a critical GEO spacecraft.
GEO assets currently in space are prime real estate. The assets that are in operation on orbit will steadily be increasing in their value as LEO becomes more congested. Considering the average cost of launching a new satellite can range from $10 M to $505 M. By choosing to service a satellite in need and increasing it’s expected life, you not only save the launch cost, but avoid any unforeseen licensing or regulatory issues concerning the launch. This research investigates how externalities will become value drivers on GEO. With 6,370 successful launches in the last 65 years, 32,300 pieces of tracked debris have been created. By choosing to service a satellite, instead of contributing to the throwaway culture on orbit and simply launching a new satellite, the amount of future debris can start to steady. Building and launching new assets comes with enormous costs to governments and commercial operators who utilize highly technical payloads, costs that will be avoided with OOS.
Since previous ASAT tests have resulted in large debris creating events, OOS provides a new capability to satellite operators that allows for new freedom of maneuvering in LEO. A spacecraft’s need to constantly move out of the way of debris forces increased fuel consumption which decreased the assets expected life. OOS takes on the burden of delta-V maneuvers and refueling so assets on-orbit can continue operations securely.
Ultimately, the increasing risk to LEO assets through growing debris fields and ASAT test capabilities, accelerates restricting access to space over critical GEO assets. These GEO orbital slots will increase in their value with the restriction to access to space that is caused by growing debris in LEO. Instead of contributing to the problem by launching more constellations, government and commercial operators should consider other solutions, such as servicing the already operating assets in valuable slots in GEO.
This economic analysis of GEO slots will show the safe and sustainable future for all space-based assets, including SSA and SDA, involves determining the value of GEO slots to help operators make the decision to service the assets that reside there, instead of creating more debris by launching new ones.
Date of Conference: September 19-22, 2023
Track: Space-Based Assets